Two most important and embarrassing questions for our Leadership ….
Whether going further the eligible youngsters will have a worthwhile job to do?
What kind of jobs will our youngsters do for their livelihood and passion?
While these questions are on top of mind for the vast urban middle class … the fact is no Leadership yet has given a serious thought to Job Creation for middle class as an agenda item… forget empirical planning, strategizing, forging aspirations, cultivating skill set and attitudes leading to it.
At present the approach is to prepare them to beat the competition ( through asset of “irrelevant merit” OR purchase OR reservations OR patronage ) and get there … “there” meaning wherever whatever Job / Earning opportunities could become available.
Many traditional jobs have been dwindling …. AND rightly so in many cases …
- In offices files were routed through ten tables justifying ten clerical jobs … leading to colossal productivity loss, malpractices, delays and inconvenience caused to general public. Computerization and paperless working has taken toll of those cosy jobs for good.
- Complexity and hoarded information driven expertise used to thrive earlier … the system and rules were ( deliberately ? ) made so complex that an expert was required to interpret , decipher and guide for survival… now there has been a movement for making things simpler , friendlier, transparent and closer to common sense.
- In factories and farms automation and mechanization has greatly reduced the manpower requirement vis-à-vis Production volumes.
- Earlier it was being claimed that with technology perhaps the number of direct jobs may reduce BUT indirect jobs like Maintenance & Calibration services would increase … even that has not happened because machines / equipment have become relatively “maintenance free” and can be managed remotely with minimal manpower.
- Quality Assurance and Inspection jobs was once considered very important in manufacturing BUT now this too is being recognized as a “Cost” and ideally manufacturing should produce “quality by design” automatically.
- Formerly, there used to be rigid entry rules and pathways to enter into any expertise domain to unlock access and thereafter one could bask in “secured jobs” in those domains …Now, information / knowledge ( though not wisdom) about any domain could be downloaded easily, opening them up for just about anybody.
- With automation, global connectivity and things becoming more systematic; it is logical to expect that the jobs of administering / managing / supervising would come down …and also trading and call centre kind of jobs would shrink.
- Beyond a point consumption, entertainment and consumerism would also saturate
Engineers are presently escaping into IT to find honourable livelihood BUT what happens when IT too gets saturated? How long and how much software could be required ? We have already reached a state where whatever features one could imagine into a smartphone and computers are by far already in place.
Statement is often made that if jobs reduce in manufacturing / design … there would be growth in “Service Sector” … BUT somehow the money must flow into the Indian economy to sustain the demand for Service Sector or Real Estate. How can shopping malls thrive if people do not have money / requirement to buy?
What will always be there?
Jobs in uniform, health services, pharma, retailing, food & beverages, grocery & merchandise, essential services, transportation, travel, teaching, hospitality and positional jobs would always be there in similar proportions, as they are today.
Attributes of “Jobs for the future” ….and what would take us there?
Golden Rule is the jobs must add “value” and not cost , delay or complexity
- They should pump money into Indian economy from abroad OR they should directly create wealth. Yes, knowledge – intelligence – wisdom are also wealth.
- Whatever we seek to sell… better be “Premium – World Class” and tech savvy ; working for compromised frugality is not something that could take us far … it would keep us in the category of “underdogs” forever.
- Going further leveraging human creativity and adaptability will assume importance … we should focus on doing what the machines cannot do.
- Indians are temperamentally better at “making house” than “making brick” so system integration could become an attractive proposition as compared to focusing on nuts and bolts. The idea of “Make in India” is unlikely to make us secluded from the world for total self-reliance …the era of feasibility for full backward integration is long over.
- Forget assurance of steady earning – forget long term loyalty to a specific domain / organization … train the mind to switch domains with ease and be pushy to intrude anywhere, as required.
- Creative pursuits like writing / entertaining must adapt to technology era and use media that gives wider and faster reach today.
- It is clear the era of high volumes is over … the focus would eventually shift to Customization, larger range and variety requiring “Higher Quality – Higher Value Creation with lesser volume of work”
Bottom-line: Recipe based learning must change to creative innovation focused learning. There would be requirement for “niche” jobs BUT that “niche” would keep shifting dynamically.
AVINASH KHARE